Learn how to compare the return on investment of maintaining your own premium wine inventory versus using Chu's Wine to power your wine offering. Make informed decisions based on financial modeling and assumptions.
[Spoiler Alert]: the model reveals how restaurant owners can make an extra $100,000 per year without extra investment and risk.
The financial model takes into account various factors, such as the cost of your wine inventory, the average price on your wine list, the number of bottles sold per month, and adjustments needed to account for the associated risk and opportunity cost. These assumptions allow you to estimate the return under different circumstances and make informed decisions.
By understanding the financial model and its components, you can gain valuable insights into the potential ROI of your premium wine offerings.
To utilize the financial model effectively, it is necessary to make assumptions about your premium wine holding. This includes considering the cost of the wine inventory, which can be calculated by multiplying the number of labels by the number of bottles per label and the average bottle price.
By inputting these assumptions into the financial model, you can gain a clearer understanding of the financial implications of your premium wine holding and how it impacts your overall ROI.
Another important aspect to consider when using the financial model is making assumptions about your sales. This includes determining the average price on your wine list and the number of bottles sold per month.
By inputting these assumptions into the financial model, you can assess the potential revenue generated from your premium wine offerings and how it contributes to your ROI.
Considering the risks and costs associated with managing your premium wine inventory is crucial. This involves taking into account operational expenses, such as staff salaries, equipment, and storage space.
It's also essential to consider the concept of opportunity cost, which highlights the potential earnings that could have been achieved if the investment was directed elsewhere.
Moreover, a significant risk not yet accounted for in this model, which makes adopting Chu's Wine more appealing, is the hard-to-move items and the liquidation cost. When calculating the actual value of assets, the resold value should be considered especially after accounting for hard-to-move items.
For instance, if a bottle retails for $100, is auctioned for $95, and was purchased for $80 wholesale, after including a 20% buyer and seller premium at auction, the seller might receive less than $75 or even $60 if the items is hard to move. Additionally, for restaurant operators to acquire truly rare bottles from suppliers, many face the challenge of buying wines they are not confident in selling. If operators are not consistently vigilant, these difficult-to-sell items can gradually degrade the quality of the inventory year over year.
By factoring in these considerations, you can make appropriate adjustments to your returns and gain a more precise understanding of the financial implications of managing your premium wine stock independently versus leveraging Chu's Wine.
The model can be found here. In Columns A and B, sensible default parameters have been established.
Regarding wine inventory, the model assumes that the restaurant offers a wine list consisting of 300 premium selections, with each selection having 3 bottles in stock. The cost per bottle is $300 for wholesale buy-out and $450 for on-demand ordering from Chu's Wine.
For sales, the model assumes that the restaurant can sell 20 bottles per month at an average price of $750 (2.5X the wholesale price).
In terms of associated risks and costs, the model considers operational expenses (such as staff wages, electricity, wine fridge, and storage space) to be $2,000 per month. It also accounts for an opportunity cost of 8% (based on the S&P 500 long-term average return to be 7.98%) and a liquidation discount of 15% (as detailed in the previous section).
With the default parameters in mind, the model reveals that selling just one bottle of premium wine per day could result in a yearly adjusted income of $108,000 (F9) if you utilize Chu's Wine, while building your own cellar could bring in $77,250 (E9). Furthermore, columns H to K perform the same calculations as seen in D1 and F10, allowing readers to easily compare adjusted incomes across various scenarios involving different combinations of monthly bottle sales and featured premium wine labels on the wine list. For example, if a restaurant offers 250 premium wine selections and sells 41 bottles per month, the adjusted income for maintaining your own cellar is $12,291, whereas utilizing Chu's Wine yields $12,300.
Making the Decision